As the time for general elections draws near, Pakistani President General Pervez Musharraf struggles to stay in-charge by compromising with rival Benazir Bhutto who still enjoys Washington's confidence.
By Naveed Ahmad in Islamabad for ISN Security Watch (02/08/07)
Despite some recent serious setbacks, Pakistani military ruler General Musharraf's quest for power is still going strong. After eight years of dictatorship, the general is now mulling strategic adjustments to secure another term as president and as a key American ally in the "war on terror."
At a recent meeting with newspaper editors, Musharraf trotted out the stale doctrine of "unity of command," which critics say is a cover for authoritarianism. Saying he was "a true democrat at heart," he described his controversial army fatigues as "his second skin."
With general elections due in October, Musharraf is carefully weighing his options for remaining in power.
Over the weekend, the general met with exiled former prime minister Benazir Bhutto to talk about a power-sharing agreement. Though deliberations of this interaction have been kept under tight wraps, Musharraf's political allies have expressed shock at not having been consulted over the issue.
Sources privy to the meeting in both the camps suggest that Musharraf may quit the Chief of Army Staff office by December after being prematurely re-elected as president for another term by the outgoing parliament, an act with no constitutional justification.
"We are practicing politics of pragmatism […] He [Musharraf] needs a way out and the country requires a liberal and courageous leadership," said a senior leader of Benazir's Pakistan People's Party (PPP) from London.
In a quid pro quo, the corruption-tainted Bhutto is seeking to become a third-time prime minister. However, Musharraf would knock down the clause of the 17th Amendment that prevents an individual from becoming prime minister for the third time.
The 27 July meeting in Abu Dhabi followed a year's worth of exhaustive ground work by emissaries as the Musharraf camp not only softened rhetoric against the liberal-minded PPP but also eased off pressure against its leader by withdrawing corruption cases.
The military regime has already made significant "conciliatory" moves, withdrawing a corruption case against her from prosecution in Swiss and Spanish courts, unfreezing her bank accounts and not perusing corruption cases in the Pakistani courts.
Last year, the government released her husband, Asif Ali Zardari, on bail after some nine years in prison.
Benazir told Germany's Focus magazine that extremists were plotting to overthrow Musharraf and the religious seminaries had been converted "into military headquarters with well-stocked arsenals."
She has no differences with Musharraf regime over foreign and defense policies, should she has blamed the military for following a policy of appeasing the Islamists since 1999.
"Another meeting between Musharraf and Bhutto is likely by September in the US or any other western capital to seal the power-sharing deal in the presence of guarantors," a key interlocutor between the two camps told ISN Security Watch on condition of anonymity.
Parliamentary Affairs Minister Sher Afgan Niazi told ISN Security Watch in a telephone interview that "Both the leaders need more time to reach a mutually acceptable pact as they have not gone beyond agreeing in principle to share power in the next dispensation."
The minister also confirmed the likelihood of Musharraf doffing his military fatigues by December after winning the next presidential term.
Changed realities
Since the restoration of Chief Justice of Pakistan Justice Iftikhar Muhammad Chaudhry by the Supreme Court and the flawed and bloody military operation against hardline clerics in Islamabad's Lal Masjid, Musharraf has been weakened beyond doubt.
For the first time in its checkered history, the Supreme Court has refused to bow down before a sitting military ruler. Thanks to a well organized lawyers' movement and massive public backing of the chief justice, Musharraf's plan to re-elect himself as president from the sitting parliament, supervise the elections due in October and cut a deal with Bhutto, all remain vulnerable to the scrutiny of the apex court.
Musharraf and his regime have been upset over the judicial activism exercised by Chief Justice Chaudhry for many months. Chaudhry would initiate judicial proceedings on any matter of public importance ranging from abuse of power reported in a newspaper or the murky privatization deals of huge industrial units by the government.
The Supreme Court is already hearing a petition by Qazi Hussain Ahmad, president of the Islamist MMA alliance, challenging Musharraf's claim over the army chief office.
The key opposition party, the Pakistan Muslim League (Nawaz), PML(N), has also appealed to the apex court for the return of its leader and two-time prime minister Nawaz Sharif, who was exiled to Saudi Arabia after Musharraf overthrew his elected government through a bloodless coup in October 1999.
"We are confident that the Supreme Court would permit the return of PML(N) President Nawaz Sharif and his brother Shahbaz Sharif with dignity and honor to their homeland," Khawaja Asif, a senior party leader, told ISN Security Watch.
The fissures among the ruling coalition are now making it to the headlines. Various key cabinet members complain of being left out in the cold when it came to meeting Bhutto for a power-sharing deal.
The president of the pro-Musharraf Muslim League, Chaudhry Shujaat, refuses to accept that a deal has been reached with the rival PPP.
"There is no need to go into an alliance with any other party including the PPP because we have both strength in the parliament and a vote bank in the streets," he told reporters at a press conference.
In 2002, the military established a political party of its own, the PML(Q), meant as a mainstay for Musharraf. However, the party has not worked out as planned, and Musharraf has failed to win its total loyalty. Many PML(Q) leaders - former PPP and PML(N) lawmakers - chose to accept prison terms on dubious corruption charges rather than to support Musharraf. Today, the league is plagued with numerous internal leadership battles.
The Muttahida Qaumi Movement (MQM) is another key but smaller coalition partner in the government. The MQM is by far Musharraf's favorite for a number of reasons. MQM leaders hail from the coastal areas of Sindh province and their vote bank comprises migrants from southern India to Pakistan after 1947. Musharraf's family shares cultural and ethnic ties with the MQM.
"We favor political contacts but the talk of a deal with PPP is too farfetched," said Farooq Sattar, a key MQM leader.
The president wants all leaders on board to deal with the threat of religious extremism while holding free and fair elections on schedule," he explained. The MQM leader was upset over the prospects of Benazir's return to Pakistan. "She can come to face the courts but cannot enter parliament under the constitution."
Qazi Hussain Ahmad, the most vocal of Musharraf's critics, says the time is up for military rule and "the talk of a deal with Benazir Bhutto sheds light on the fairness of the forthcoming elections," referring to indications that Musharraf feels he could not win a free and fair election without joining Bhutto's camp.
Walking a tightrope
Washington too has clearly distanced itself from Musharraf. The US Congress recently linked aid to Pakistan with success in the "war on terror" and the holding of free and fair elections. At home, the Islamist backlash to a bloody military operation is claiming the lives of security officials across the country in suicide attack or bomb explosions.
The Brussels-based International Crisis Group (ICG) has already opposed Musharraf's re-election for another term before elections to the new assemblies. And Musharraf's approval ratings have plummeted significantly, according to a poll conducted by the International Republican Institute.
"By any objective standard, General Musharraf has not been much of a leader in war or peace […] As his time comes to an end, he can do the nation a favor by realizing that the play is up and the curtains have come down […] Let him not go raging into the night […] For once Pakistan can do with a gentle transition," says Ayaz Amir, a renowned columnist with Dawn newspaper.
Naveed Ahmad is a senior correspondent in Pakistan and Afghanistan. Besides reporting for Pakistani TV channel, Geo News and Germany DW-TV, he is also a special correspondent for McClatchy Newspapers group in the United States
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