Musharraf's new game plan

 

As the time for general elections draws near, Pakistani President General Pervez Musharraf struggles to stay in-charge by compromising with rival Benazir Bhutto who still enjoys Washington's confidence.

By Naveed Ahmad in Islamabad for ISN Security Watch (02/08/07)

Despite some recent serious setbacks, Pakistani military ruler General Musharraf's quest for power is still going strong. After eight years of dictatorship, the general is now mulling strategic adjustments to secure another term as president and as a key American ally in the "war on terror."

At a recent meeting with newspaper editors, Musharraf trotted out the stale doctrine of "unity of command," which critics say is a cover for authoritarianism. Saying he was "a true democrat at heart," he described his controversial army fatigues as "his second skin."

With general elections due in October, Musharraf is carefully weighing his options for remaining in power.

Over the weekend, the general met with exiled former prime minister Benazir Bhutto to talk about a power-sharing agreement. Though deliberations of this interaction have been kept under tight wraps, Musharraf's political allies have expressed shock at not having been consulted over the issue.

Sources privy to the meeting in both the camps suggest that Musharraf may quit the Chief of Army Staff office by December after being prematurely re-elected as president for another term by the outgoing parliament, an act with no constitutional justification.

"We are practicing politics of pragmatism […] He [Musharraf] needs a way out and the country requires a liberal and courageous leadership," said a senior leader of Benazir's Pakistan People's Party (PPP) from London.

In a quid pro quo, the corruption-tainted Bhutto is seeking to become a third-time prime minister. However, Musharraf would knock down the clause of the 17th Amendment that prevents an individual from becoming prime minister for the third time.

The 27 July meeting in Abu Dhabi followed a year's worth of exhaustive ground work by emissaries as the Musharraf camp not only softened rhetoric against the liberal-minded PPP but also eased off pressure against its leader by withdrawing corruption cases.

The military regime has already made significant "conciliatory" moves, withdrawing a corruption case against her from prosecution in Swiss and Spanish courts, unfreezing her bank accounts and not perusing corruption cases in the Pakistani courts.

Last year, the government released her husband, Asif Ali Zardari, on bail after some nine years in prison.

Benazir told Germany's Focus magazine that extremists were plotting to overthrow Musharraf and the religious seminaries had been converted "into military headquarters with well-stocked arsenals."

She has no differences with Musharraf regime over foreign and defense policies, should she has blamed the military for following a policy of appeasing the Islamists since 1999.

"Another meeting between Musharraf and Bhutto is likely by September in the US or any other western capital to seal the power-sharing deal in the presence of guarantors," a key interlocutor between the two camps told ISN Security Watch on condition of anonymity.

Parliamentary Affairs Minister Sher Afgan Niazi told ISN Security Watch in a telephone interview that "Both the leaders need more time to reach a mutually acceptable pact as they have not gone beyond agreeing in principle to share power in the next dispensation."

The minister also confirmed the likelihood of Musharraf doffing his military fatigues by December after winning the next presidential term.

Changed realities

Since the restoration of Chief Justice of Pakistan Justice Iftikhar Muhammad Chaudhry by the Supreme Court and the flawed and bloody military operation against hardline clerics in Islamabad's Lal Masjid, Musharraf has been weakened beyond doubt.

For the first time in its checkered history, the Supreme Court has refused to bow down before a sitting military ruler. Thanks to a well organized lawyers' movement and massive public backing of the chief justice, Musharraf's plan to re-elect himself as president from the sitting parliament, supervise the elections due in October and cut a deal with Bhutto, all remain vulnerable to the scrutiny of the apex court.

Musharraf and his regime have been upset over the judicial activism exercised by Chief Justice Chaudhry for many months. Chaudhry would initiate judicial proceedings on any matter of public importance ranging from abuse of power reported in a newspaper or the murky privatization deals of huge industrial units by the government.

The Supreme Court is already hearing a petition by Qazi Hussain Ahmad, president of the Islamist MMA alliance, challenging Musharraf's claim over the army chief office.

The key opposition party, the Pakistan Muslim League (Nawaz), PML(N), has also appealed to the apex court for the return of its leader and two-time prime minister Nawaz Sharif, who was exiled to Saudi Arabia after Musharraf overthrew his elected government through a bloodless coup in October 1999.

"We are confident that the Supreme Court would permit the return of PML(N) President Nawaz Sharif and his brother Shahbaz Sharif with dignity and honor to their homeland," Khawaja Asif, a senior party leader, told ISN Security Watch.

The fissures among the ruling coalition are now making it to the headlines. Various key cabinet members complain of being left out in the cold when it came to meeting Bhutto for a power-sharing deal.

The president of the pro-Musharraf Muslim League, Chaudhry Shujaat, refuses to accept that a deal has been reached with the rival PPP.

"There is no need to go into an alliance with any other party including the PPP because we have both strength in the parliament and a vote bank in the streets," he told reporters at a press conference.

In 2002, the military established a political party of its own, the PML(Q), meant as a mainstay for Musharraf. However, the party has not worked out as planned, and Musharraf has failed to win its total loyalty. Many PML(Q) leaders - former PPP and PML(N) lawmakers - chose to accept prison terms on dubious corruption charges rather than to support Musharraf. Today, the league is plagued with numerous internal leadership battles.

The Muttahida Qaumi Movement (MQM) is another key but smaller coalition partner in the government. The MQM is by far Musharraf's favorite for a number of reasons. MQM leaders hail from the coastal areas of Sindh province and their vote bank comprises migrants from southern India to Pakistan after 1947. Musharraf's family shares cultural and ethnic ties with the MQM.

"We favor political contacts but the talk of a deal with PPP is too farfetched," said Farooq Sattar, a key MQM leader.

The president wants all leaders on board to deal with the threat of religious extremism while holding free and fair elections on schedule," he explained. The MQM leader was upset over the prospects of Benazir's return to Pakistan. "She can come to face the courts but cannot enter parliament under the constitution."

Qazi Hussain Ahmad, the most vocal of Musharraf's critics, says the time is up for military rule and "the talk of a deal with Benazir Bhutto sheds light on the fairness of the forthcoming elections," referring to indications that Musharraf feels he could not win a free and fair election without joining Bhutto's camp.

Walking a tightrope

Washington too has clearly distanced itself from Musharraf. The US Congress recently linked aid to Pakistan with success in the "war on terror" and the holding of free and fair elections. At home, the Islamist backlash to a bloody military operation is claiming the lives of security officials across the country in suicide attack or bomb explosions.

The Brussels-based International Crisis Group (ICG) has already opposed Musharraf's re-election for another term before elections to the new assemblies. And Musharraf's approval ratings have plummeted significantly, according to a poll conducted by the International Republican Institute.

"By any objective standard, General Musharraf has not been much of a leader in war or peace […] As his time comes to an end, he can do the nation a favor by realizing that the play is up and the curtains have come down […] Let him not go raging into the night […] For once Pakistan can do with a gentle transition," says Ayaz Amir, a renowned columnist with Dawn newspaper.

---

Naveed Ahmad is a senior correspondent in Pakistan and Afghanistan. Besides reporting for Pakistani TV channel, Geo News and Germany DW-TV, he is also a special correspondent for McClatchy Newspapers group in the United States

An ISN Security Watch article

Musharraf finds friends in West, foes at home
The West's support for Pakistan's military dictator, General Pervez Musharraf, will not be enough to keep him above water at home, where political and militant opposition against him is growing. Commentary by Naveed Ahmad in Islamabad for ISN Security Watch (03/02/05)

In the West, Pakistan's military president, General Pervez Musharraf, has been praised as a staunch ally in the "war on terror", but at home he is better known as a dictatorial leader who has kept democracy at bay by ensuring that the military controls every aspect of political life. And while there is no sign that his support in the West is waning, there have been indications that his days could be numbered, as the opposition picks up momentum. The Pakistani military dictator's decision to stay on as army chief, while at the same time controlling the all-powerful office of the presidency, came as no real surprise to most Pakistanis. On 30 December 2004, Musharraf reneged on his promise made the year before to shed his military uniform in order to legitimize the presidency. Musharraf already has the power to appoint all three chiefs of the armed forces and the chief justices of the courts, sack an elected government, and even dissolve the parliament. And while he has made a good show before the Western world of targeting corruption, the Human Rights Commission of Pakistan and various opposition leaders say that Musharraf is only blackmailing parliamentarians with the threat of corruption charges if they should go against his policies. Musharraf will remain the head of the military until 2007, unless fate ordains otherwise, which it very well could in the face of growing opposition to his rule and increasing Islamist militancy - not to mention the three known assassination attempts he has survived since September 2001 alone.

Consolidating power

After the October 1999 bloodless military coup against prime minister Nawaz Sharif, the political forces' immediate reaction was to seek a fast transition back to civilian rule. The question for politicians all along has been how to get the army back in the barracks, and how to get on with politics as usual - one of the ultimate goals of which would be to put the military in its rightful place as the government department responsible for defending the country's geographical frontiers. Musharraf's view, on the other hand, is a divergent one, which is entrenched within the military. He has established a military-dominated National Security Council and consolidated his position within the armed forces. He has the power to choose the commanders of both the air force and the navy, with no checks and balances. Musharraf is on his third extension as general since 1998. Since 1999, he has reshuffled and pre-maturely retired 38 lieutenant and major generals, amongst whom nine were commanding the army corps - and six alone in the most critical Rawalpindi Corps, the closest to the nerve and power center of Islamabad.

Growing opposition
But opposition to Musharraf - both in the government and among militant forces - is growing, and there is always the fear of another assassination attempt. Those fears are especially prevalent since the suspected mastermind of the attempts on his life escaped from custody at Rawalpindi's Chaklala air base and is still on the run. Opposition parties are growing bolder. Ditched and left in the cold, the religio-political alliance Muttahida Majlis-i-Amal (the United Action Front, MMA), has already begun mobilizing its street power by launching an "oust Musharraf campaign". The outspoken opposition leader, Qazi Hussain Ahmad, has repeatedly branded the general as "a security threat" to Pakistan, for siding with the US in killing innocent Muslims. At the same time, the pro-Western liberal and democratic Pakistan Peoples Party has half-heartedly joined the staunch, anti-Musharraf Pakistan Muslim League of deposed prime minister Sharif, and is set to launch a resistance campaign from a common platform called the Alliance for Restoration of Democracy (ARD). While the influential MMA has already embarked on a hard-hitting protest campaign, the ARD has yet to chalk out its own plans. Sooner or later, though, the two groups are bound to join forces.

The threat of Islamist militancy
Musharraf's greatest worry is the growing political appeal for Islamists and militancy. The unchecked military operations targeting the country's tribal region of South Waziristan have created much anger and discontent among Muslims in the area. The result has been a groundswell of support for Islamists. While the fractious political opposition may lack the required shrewdness to bring down the most powerful dictator in the country's 57-year history, the militants will prove more of a challenge. Musharraf's fate depends less on support from foreign capitals and loyal subordinates in fatigues, and more on how smartly he manages to limit opposition to his person and policies from political and militant opponents. And the line between his political and militant opponents is becoming increasingly blurred, with six mainstream Islamist parties united under the MMA umbrella to form a powerful opposition that holds much influence in the restive Frontier and Balochistan provinces neighboring Afghanistan.

Signs of reconciliation
Despite the backing of the army and the US, Musharraf is floundering. So far, the military's backing has provided the system with a semblance of stability, but it is crumbling under its own contradictions. The parliament and the cabinet are almost dysfunctional. In a space of just three months, Musharraf has sacked one prime minister, pushed aside a second, and appointed a third. It is widely understood that he has initiated a reconciliation process with the pro-Western People's Party of former prime minister Benazir Bhutto. That move in itself demonstrates Musharraf's own insecurity. Bringing Bhutto's pro-Western party back onto the scene would leave less room for Islamist parties, like the influential MMA, to maneuver. In the restive and resource-rich province of Balochistan, where military forces are battling almost daily rocket attacks from tribal militants, there are also signs that Musharraf is rethinking his strategy. On Wednesday, he called for a peace resolution to the conflict in lieu of direct military action.

Friends in high places
While the general thrives on military support at home, abroad he thrives on support from Washington, London, Paris, and other power centers. He has cleverly played his cards as a frontline ally of US President George Bush in the "war on terror", while at the same time crushing the last vestiges of democracy in Pakistan and luring Pakistani citizens with promises of "good governance" and economic development. Former US secretary of state Colin Powell certainly recognized Musharraf's usefulness in the "war on terror", stating publicly that it was necessary for the general to hold on to his dual position as president and army chief in order to continue fighting terrorism. "We've got the Pakistanis playing a much more aggressive role in their frontier areas to go after Taliban and al-Qaida remnants and I am personally aware that General Musharraf has made a tremendous difference in helping us achieve our objectives," Powell told reporters in October 2004. Musharraf has deployed 70'000 troops along the Pakistan-Afghan border and has reportedly handed over 500 al-Qaida-linked suspects to the US. "General Musharraf has done for Pakistani what was needed the most over the past many, many years," he said. In another talk with reporters, he said: "Three years ago this month, Pakistan was certainly tolerating if not directly supporting in many ways the Taliban. We had a very strained, difficult relationship with Pakistan and in a bold, strategic move, President Musharraf decided - in a phone call I will never forget on about the 13th or 14th of September [2001] - that he would move Pakistan in an entirely new direction. "And he has done that," Powell said. Indeed, few in Pakistan would argue against that: Musharraf has certainly taken Pakistan in an "entirely new direction" - but towards democracy it is not.

Washington's priorities
But democracy is not what Washington is primarily concerned with here. Musharraf used his latest tour of Washington, London, and Paris to convey to his domestic opponents that the world was siding with him. Powell rejected suggestions that Musharraf had breached any laws in wanting to retain his position as the chief of his country's powerful army, despite the unconstitutionality of holding that post along with the presidency. "The parliament provided for means for him to do this. He has exercised that option and it is now a matter for the Pakistan people and the Pakistan parliament, which has already judged this, to make any other judgments they wish to make," said Powell. British Prime Minister Tony Blair and French President Jacques Chirac were no less generous in their support for their Pakistani ally. Staunch support from the Bush administration has further boosted Musharraf's morale. Musharraf was the second leader, after British Prime Minister Tony Blair, to be received at the White House after Bush's November re-election. There is a clear indication that Washington wants Musharraf to stay in uniform as long as Bush's "war on terror" continues. And a Pakistani leader in military uniform can certainly deliver far more than a democratically elected one. In a December editorial, the Los Angeles Times, noted: "The general's opponents, it seems, now have no option but to concede that their adversary has returned from the US as a powerful military leader who will remain in control despite what it may mean for the future of democracy in Pakistan." However, the latest Freedom House study lists Pakistan in the "Not Free" category. It is not included among the countries that grant political rights and civil liberties to their citizens, but is instead ranked with the world's worst rights violators, such as Rwanda, Angola, Cambodia, and others.

The price for approval

But Washington's continued support is not without conditions. In return for turning a blind eye to the crushing of democracy in Pakistan, Washington will continue to twist Musharraf's arm over a nuclear proliferation scandal involving one of its top scientists, who sold nuclear secrets to Iran, Libya, and North Korea. Last February, top Pakistani scientist Dr Qadeer Khan confessed to having leaked nuclear weapons secrets to the three "rogue" nations. Musharraf pardoned Khan for his sins. But the head of the UN's nuclear watchdog agency, Mohamed ElBaradei, said Khan's revelations were likely just the "tip of the iceberg" of nuclear black market dealings. Both the UN and Washington are eager to get their hands on Khan to find out more. What it comes down to is this: Pakistan is the key to finding out about Iran's nuclear capabilities, and a compliant Musharraf is making this much easier. According to an article in The New Yorker in late January by veteran journalist Seymour Hersh, the Bush administration has been conducting secret reconnaissance missions inside Iran since last summer, if not before. Citing sources "with close ties to the Pentagon", Hersh said an American commando task force had been working closely with Pakistani scientists and technicians who had had previously dealings with Iranian scientists. That task force, he said, was using information from Pakistani experts to infiltrate eastern Iran from Afghanistan in order to locate Iranian nuclear installations for a possible US attack. Pakistan has denied any "government-to-government contact" or cooperation between Pakistan and the US on the nuclear issue. But if Hersh's reporting is correct, Washington is likely to want to hold on to these valuable Pakistani ties. In the meantime, it is willing to turn a blind eye to Pakistan's own nuclear development, which Musharraf is seeking to expand.

 

Naveed Ahmad is an investigative correspondent for newspaper The News and monthly Newsline. He often contributes to reputed foreign publications. He is a visiting faculty on conflict resolution and civil-military relations at Iqra University. He was awarded the Hawaii-based East-West Center's Jefferson Fellowship in fall 2000 and the Washington Press Center's "Conflict Resolution and Nuclear Non-proliferation" fellowship in 2004. He can be reached at naveed@islamabad.net

ISN Security Watch - Your daily security check on the Euro-Atlantic region. For our full news service visit our website, http://www.isn.ethz.ch

Mysterious disappearances in Pakistan

Musharraf's Pakistan and his unchecked intelligence agencies reek havoc on human rights, as over 400 families struggle for information about their missing loved ones.

By Naveed Ahmad in Islamabad for ISN Security Watch (15/08/07)

In the early days of June 2004, a few unidentified persons were seen inquiring about Atiq-ur-Rahman, a young scientist from the Pakistan Atomic Energy Commission (PAEC), near his home in Abbotabad city, some 110 kilometers north of the capital Islamabad. Atiq went missing under mysterious circumstances on the morning of 23 June while his family and friends waited desperately for his wedding party.

Since then, Atiq's parents, his brother and five sisters, have been awaiting his return. "I believe my son will come home safe and sound," Siddiq-ur-Rahman, holding a framed picture of Atiq receiving a gold medal from none other than General Pervez Musharraf, Pakistan's president, tells ISN Security Watch.

Because of Atiq's position in the country's Atomic Energy Commission, his friends and family have logically assumed that he has been taken away by one of the country's intelligence agencies, but there has been no official word from anyone and the disappearance remains a mystery.

Three years later, on 16 July this year, Atiq's father-in-law finally said the engagement with his daughter Irum was no longer on.

Though the local police registered Atiq as missing, a formal investigation was never launched, and the family was soon asked to stop visiting the police station, saying one of the intelligence agencies had picked him up and there was nothing the local police could do.

To the utter surprise of the family, the PAEC did not panic over the development and instead kept dispatching warning letters asking Atiq to report to the office or lose his job. Eventually they stopped sending his salary.

"As a standard operating procedure, such cases are reported to our security department who are meant to handle them," a top PAEC official told ISN Security Watch.

Imran, Atiq's brother, recalls that a neighbor told him about several individuals who had been inquiring about his brother shortly before he disappeared. However, there are no witnesses to testify as to whether they saw Atiq being taken away.

More mysterious disappearances

Since 2002, over 400 families have claimed that their loved ones were picked up by the intelligence agencies under mysterious conditions. A few lucky families received briefed phone calls from the detention centers, but the majority have not been so lucky.

Despite the high profile coverage these cases were given in Pakistan's popular daily newspaper, The News, not a single human rights group had taken up the cause.

Realizing the void, Amina Masood, the wife of a missing philanthropist and businessman Masood Ahmed Janjua, has taken her case to the streets. Her actions have led other families in similar situations to join her and set up the nongovernmental Defense of Human Rights group.

Masood Janjua, now 45, disappeared on 30 July 2005 while on his way to catch a bus to Peshawar for an Islamic study group with Tablighi Jamaat, which describes itself as a peaceful movement. His young friend, Faisal Faraz, also went missing the same day from the very same place.

Amina braved intimidation from the intelligence corps and persistently demanded that the government speak up about her missing husband and dozens of others.

Her efforts moved Chief Justice of Pakistan Justice Iftikhar Muhammad Chaudhry who took up the missing persons cases, forcing the government to trace around 100 missing persons - over half of whom have been released by the intelligence agencies.

The Defense Ministry, which controls Inter-Services Intelligence and Military Intelligence, finally has been summoned to the Supreme Court following the restoration of the chief justice in July after General Musharraf failed to prove severe allegations against the country’s top judge.

Some of the missing persons are Islamic militants and possibly criminals but the country's law opposes detention of any citizen without official charges followed by legal proceedings.

Dr Aafia Siddiqui, a mother of three children, disappeared from her Karachi residence in 2001. Unconfirmed reports suggest that she has been sent to Guantanamo Bay prison. Pakistani Interior Ministry spokesman Brigadier General Javed Iqbal Cheema denies any knowledge of the whereabouts of Dr Aafia or Amina Masood's husband.

"We are doing our best to trace the missing persons and duly share the available information with the Supreme Court," he told ISN Security Watch via telephone.

Amina Masood does not accept the government's version. She says some of those released on orders from the Supreme Court orders have filed affidavits claiming to have seen her husband in the detention centers.

She says her family received a phone call from General Musharraf's military secretary last year promising that her husband would be freed soon.

Amina refers to a letter from Dr Imran Munir, who clearly stated he had met Masood Janjua in a detention center in the Mangla cantonment, around 90 kilometers from Islamabad. Imran has been sentenced to eight years in prison on charges of espionage and the Supreme Court has ordered authorities to bring him before the court.

Dr Imran Munir's family claims that he is being punished for falling in love with the daughter of a brigadier who had invited him over for dinner on the same night that the 24-year-old went missing.

Charged or released

Lawyers for the missing argue that all of them should be charged and tried in open court or released.

In its annual report on human rights, the US State Department has acknowledged the disappearances. "There was an increase of politically motivated disappearances. Police and security forces held prisoners incommunicado and refused to provide information on their whereabouts, particularly in terrorism and national security cases."

Amnesty, Asia Watch and Human Rights Watch have been far more critical of forced disappearances during the Musharraf regime.

Many of the missing persons belong to nationalist outfits, fighting for the rights of under-developed areas such as Sindh and Balochistan. The government accuses these nationalists of receiving funding and training from Afghanistan and India.

The nationalist groups base their politics on ethnicity and regionalism. Historians use the term nationalism to refer to this historical transition and to the emergence and predominance of nationalist ideology. Prominent among these in Pakistan are the Balochistan Liberation Army and Mahajar Qaumi Movement (MQM).

Due to Amina Masood's relentless courage and humiliating revelations in the wake of a major judicial crisis, the country's Inter-Services Intelligence and Military Intelligence have faced the worst blows ever.

The death of Saud Memon, a Karachi cloth merchant, two weeks after being dumped near his house after four years of detention, further exposed the spy agencies' dubious activities.

Memon was picked up in Pretoria, South Africa, by US forces after the remains of Daniel Pearl were found on his barren land along the Super Highway. After US investigators failed to find any link between Memon and Pearl's killers, he was handed over to the Pakistani security agencies in January 2006 in Karachi.</>

The 44-year-old was brought before a Supreme Court bench on 4 May that year on a stretcher, his eyes looking blank and saliva spilling out of his mouth.

Weighing only 18 kilograms, Memon met a tragic death in a hospital in Karachi at the hands of alleged mental and physical torture.

Affidavits submitted in the Supreme Court by Pakistani citizens released by the intelligence agencies suggest that Saud was physically weak but had no mental or psychological problem after returning from US detention.

Mehmood Memon, Saud's younger brother, told ISN Security Watch via telephone from Karachi, "We are extremely terrified … Saud was dumped on the roadside with an implicit message: keep your mouth shut or else..."

In Rawalpindi, Amina Masood says she is receiving abusive telephonic calls and SMS messages threatening her life should she further pursue the release of missing persons.

"More recently, we are being informed through friends that Masood has been sent to Guantanamo Bay, but no such statement is furnished before the Supreme Court," Amina tells ISN Security Watch.

Around 100 Pakistanis are thought to be still detained in Guantanamo Bay, even after the release of some 90 Pakistanis over the past few months.

"Musharraf himself … has a son, Bilal, a daughter and grandchildren. He should be able to feel our agony and pain," pleads Atiq's semi-illiterate, bewildered mother.

"The least that can suffice is a word about our dear one's life and health," she speaks for herself and many others sitting beside her outside the Parliament building in a silent protest.

---

Naveed Ahmad is a senior correspondent in Pakistan and Afghanistan. Besides reporting for Pakistani TV channel, Geo News and Germany’s DW-TV, he is also a special correspondent for McClatchy Newspapers group in the US.

Pakistan: Defining moment for democracy

 

Political maneuvering, manipulation and deals intensify as general and presidential elections draw near and Musharraf's time and options run out.

http://www.isn.ethz.ch/news/sw/details.cfm?id=18126

By Naveed Ahmad in Islamabad for ISN Security Watch (17/09/07)

Pakistani military President General Pervez Musharraf's political foes on Sunday reacted sharply to his desperate desire to manipulate a fresh presidential term by unanimously vowing to quit the legislatures.

The move followed a fresh backdoor change in Election Commission regulations for the eligibility of presidential candidates in the form of what the opposition is calling an "illegal" amendment aimed at facilitating Musharraf's candidature and his dual role as army chief.

The newly amended election rules exempt General Musharraf from an Article 63 disqualification, which otherwise prevents a government servant from participating in elections unless retired for at least two years while also denying the candidature to someone who holds an office of profit in the government service.

Presidential elections are due to be held in the first week of November. The president's supporters have indicated he will quit as army chief if elected to another five-year term.

"We will resign from the assemblies and quit the provincial governments as soon as the nomination papers of General Musharraf are accepted, allowing him to contest the presidential election," Raja Zafarul Haq of the All Parties Democratic Alliance and chairman of former prime minister Nawaz Sharif's Muslim League, said in a Sunday statement following an urgent meeting of the 32-party conglomerate.

The fresh amendment changing the rules for presidential candidates puts the Election Commission directly in conflict with the Supreme Court where a nine-member panel of judges resumes hearing on Monday regarding Musharraf's claim to the presidency and army chief offices for another term.

Devoid of any neutrality, the Election Commission of Pakistan has been acting in a partisan manner since Musharraf overthrew Sharif’s elected government in October 1999.

Over half a dozen petitions by political parties as well as individual citizens are before the Supreme Court, seeking a permanent end to military rule.

"The Supreme Court is our biggest hope and Musharraf's worst nightmare," says lawyer Shaukat Siddiqui, who too took to streets for the restoration of popular Chief Justice Iftikhar Chaudhry, who was suspended in May after refusing to bow to the general's dictates but later restored to his position by the Supreme Court.

Despite hectic efforts after Chaudhry's reinstatement on 20 July, the Pakistani military ruler has failed to mend fences.

Zafarul Haq said the opposition would use every constitutional and political option to resist and block the re-election of Musharraf.

Growing power-sharing woes

Though all mainstream political parties attended the opposition meeting in Islamabad, Benazir Bhutto's Pakistan People's Party (PPP) stayed away.

Thanks to the diplomatic maneuverings of British politician Jack Straw and US Assistant Secretary of State Richard Boucher, General Musharraf's aides have covered much ground in power-sharing talks with the liberal-minded Bhutto. However, she does not seem happy with the outcome so far.

"Our talks are going nowhere. We cannot accept Musharraf in the presidency with his uniform on and he has been refusing to doff it," Bhutto told party workers in a telephonic address from Abu Dhabi on Saturday.

In the next breath, the two-time prime minister finally announced she would end her self exile and return to Pakistan on 18 October.

Her party spokesman, Farhatullah Babar, told ISN Security Watch that the doors of talks with Musharraf would remain open until Bhutto returned home.

Babar accuses Musharraf's political advisers of scuttling the talks. "Certain political opportunists want power at the cost of the democratic transition of the country."

The PPP, for its part, denies compromising over democracy for the removal of corruption cases against Bhutto and her spouse, Asif Zardari.

Strategic compulsions: The News on Sunday

 Strategic compulsions

Six years down the road, the US still hesitates to display tangible confidence in Pakistan as an ally

http://jang.com.pk/thenews/sep2007-weekly/nos-16-09-2007/dia.htm#5

By Naveed Ahmad

Since the 1950s, Pakistan-US relations have been an interesting subject for foreign policy analysts.-- reminiscent of a roller coaster ride with abrupt lows and unpredictable highs.

In pre-9/11 era, Pakistan's defiant nuclear programme had irked United States so much that Washington would term it a policy of constructive disengagement, manifested through threats and negative legislations. The horrific images of 9/11 changed the mindset of the credibility-starved Pakistani military dictator General Pervez Musharraf, who cleverly offered unconditional support in the war against terror.

By September 12, 2001, the very next evening, Pakistan had become the front-line ally for the United States, courtesy plotters of terror attacks in New York and Washington DC.

Though the relationship rested on cooperating in war against terror, the diplomatic articulation portrayed three so called 'broad areas' that constituted the basis of the new alignment between the two nations:

1. Helping the states of South Asia to enhance regional stability.

2. Aiding Pakistan to strengthen economic, social, political, and democratic development.

3. Building bridges between US and Pakistani people in order to foster greater mutual understanding between the two countries.

So much has happened over the past five eventful years but the Pakistan-US relations remain far from cordial. Sacrifice of over 1,000 troops, loss of lives of hundreds in 'collateral damage' and unlawfully handing over of countless citizens to the American spy agencies means little for the Bush administration amid claims of Islamabad 'not doing enough'.

Five years after 9/11, much water has gone under the bridges for both United States and its front-line ally, General Pervez Musharraf, whose army has spared unprecedented number of troops as well as military wherewithal to the Afghan-bordering tribal areas.

Washington is now actively engaging Pakistan's military, police, bureaucrats, and politicians to fight a war against the religious extremists who find refuge in the remote, mountainous areas of Pakistan. General Musharraf's quest for Washington's backing to perpetuate his claim to power overshadows NATO or US pre-emptive strikes across its border with Afghanistan.

Though the United States has found little information to locate elusive Osama bin Laden and Mullah Omar, yet the Bush administration, American media as well as think-tanks continue to dream of the duo's presence in Chitral or tribal areas of the country.

Tasnim Aslam, spokesperson for Pakistan's foreign ministry, routinely rejects the claim, asking for specific and credible information which has so far never reached the responsible offices.

Islamabad gets the blame of providing safe havens to Taliban and al-Qaeda while poppy cultivation, gun-running and lawlessness reaches unprecedented heights in Hamid Karzai's Afghanistan controlled by an assortment of the world's most modern armies.

Six years later, with so many captures and killings to their credit, the Pakistani military and intelligence agencies are still being openly alleged of sympathising with al-Qaeda in its fight against the West.

Since the controversial U-turn of 9/11, the Pakistani society has seen more bloodshed in its streets than ever before. Suicide bombing and time-device explosions have rather become a routine across the whole country. Though Islamabad has banned radical groups such as Jaish-e-Mohammad, Lashkar-i-Taiba etc, the military operations in twin Waziristans and mock doses of enlightened moderation have given birth to an underworld of more sophisticated and organised, media savvy outfits -- the likes of late Ghazi Abdul Rashid. These neo-Islamists speak fluent English, wear western outfits, use the latest gadgets and run FM channels and websites hosted off-shores. These neo-Islamists are functioning more on the lines of Al-Muhajiroon and Hizb-ut-Tahrir.

Sitting on the debris of failed foreign and domestic policies, Musharraf continues to portray his persona as the sole voice of moderation in the country. Washington is backing his power-sharing deal with Benazir Bhutto tooth and nail but terms deportation of Nawaz Sharif as an internal, legal matter of Pakistan.

Predictably then, US Deputy Secretary of State John Negroponte told a press briefing in Islamabad, "Deportation of Nawaz Sharif is an internal and legal matter of Pakistan and the people of Pakistan." However, "We support a peaceful democratic transition in Pakistan."

Six years down the road, the US still hesitates to publicly display tangible confidence in Pakistan. For example, responding to a question about pre-emptive strikes in the tribal areas, John Negroponte said, "Whatever counter terror activities are being undertaken, they are being carried out in complete respect for sovereignty of Pakistan."

Interestingly Foreign Secretary Riaz Khan could not help but could only say, "Parameters for security cooperation are very clear and understood by both the sides."

While Washington acknowledges capture of over 500 wanted al-Qaeda and Taliban activists and death of hundreds others in various military operations, the much-hyped strategic dialogue has yet to take off.

The two countries launched the Strategic Dialogue in March 2006 when US President George W. Bush visited Pakistan. The first round of talks was held in Washington in April 2006.

Though US Deputy Secretary of State Negroponte led the American delegation in the second round of the Pakistan-US Strategic Dialogue, there has been little tangible progress to report at any given public forum. Theoretically, a wide range of areas of cooperation, including economic cooperation, energy, science and technology, counter-terrorism, health, and education were listed as agenda items, the high profile visit marking five years of Pakistan-US relationship is marred with speculations about Musharraf's future and Benazir's stakes.

While its nuclear energy deal with India makes headlines, Islamabad has nothing to report on its docile proposal for setting up of nuclear energy parks. Ironically, both the countries did not discuss prospects for cooperation on nuclear energy.

The state of Pakistan-US relations could be best symbolised by the US Congress bill on July 27. The bill makes US aid to Pakistan contingent on Islamabad's efforts to fight extremist groups operating on its territory, particularly those launching operations across the Durand Line in Afghanistan. The bill also conditions aid on free and fair elections in 2008 and the restoration of democracy after eight years of military rule.

As the country moves closer to general elections, Washington is hoping for Musharraf's re-election as president with Benazir Bhutto as his power partner. Most analysts find US giving precedence to personalities -- dictators (military and civilians both) -- over a nation of 160 million people, arousing old fears of abrupt end to the existing temporary warmth, courtesy General Musharraf.

Email: navid.rana@gmail.com

Pakistan’s web portal is up again but with jolts

Naveed Ahmad
ISLAMABAD: Pakistan government’s web portal – www.pakistan.gov.pk – along with a dozen other official websites of various departments and ministries is finally accessible after an outage of some two days. The other affected websites included ministry of IT & Telecom, ministry of commerce, electronic-Government Directorate (EGD) etc. The News learnt through a number of cyber savvy professionals from within the country and in England as well as Canada that the country’s prime cyber access point – www.pakistan.gov.pk – was inaccessible since Thursday.
Despite repeated phone calls by the web surfers as well as this
correspondent to the officials concerned in the EGD of the IT & Telecom ministry, the portal could not be restored until late Thursday night. After a call by The News late Thursday night, IT & Telecom Secretary Farrukh Qayyum declared emergency and the napping top bosses of the EGD were contacted. He confirmed to The News that the prolonged glitch had occurred. Official sources told The News that the EGD staff concerned waited for the Friday morning to intervene and started restoration attempts at its servers located in the National Telecommunication Corporation (NTC) premises. The News learnt that most official websites of the country are hosted on the servers of the while over dozen with the EGD. “Due to a failure at the EGD servers, the country’s web portal was down along with websites of other ministries,” a well-placed source told The News.
The News learnt that the out-dated servers could not take up the web access load eventually leading to an absolute outage.
“The problem has been identified and the corrective actions have been taken by the related department,” said Noor-ud-Din Baqai, member telecom of the IT & Telecom ministry while talking to The News. Even till the filing of this report, the website outage has not been fully addressed and the problem revives itself occasionally.
In his brief comments over the phone, Baqai said: “Our experts are still working to adjust and balance the load of website access attempts on the servers.”
The News learnt that the entire EGD team was caught napping when the netizens across the world were failing to access Pakistan through its cyber gateway.
Interestingly, ‘the official web gateway to Pakistan’ is a key online link by General Musharraf’s website  www.presidentofpakistan.gov.pk).
Though hosting services have become cheaper and more reliable with redundant bandwidth backups the world over, the country’s official web portal as well as crucial department websites are hosted by the EGD along with NTC using outdated and ill-maintained servers.
Even General Musharraf’s website is hosted in United States with Texas-based Rackspace Managed Hosting. Despite being vulnerable to virus attacks and hacking attempts, General Musharraf’s website could never be brought down, primarily due to secure and professional services by the world leading web host company.
Besides General Musharraf’s website, certain other official websites such as Election Commission, CBR, M/o Finance, SECP, PTV and MCA were accessible while ‘the country’s official web portal’ was “down and out”. All the ministries as well as department have hosted their website with professional companies abroad.
At the same time, the websites hosted with the NTC were also working fine. According some top experts within the official ranks, the up time and down time of the official portal is almost equal, which clearly reflects upon the performance of EGD.
It is worth mentioning here that the government has released million of rupees for the web portal as well as its maintenance.
A senior official told The News on Friday, “Technically speaking, unless the DNS server is alive, the web service cannot remain available,” said a mid-level IT professional adding that it is “a simple logic and no rocket science”.
The IT officials admit that the Denial of Service (DoS) and Distributed
Denial of Service (DDoS) cannot be countered and diluted in the absence of state-of-the-art servers backed by dedicated professionals. Senior officials repeatedly complain absence of competent and committed professionals within the public sector as the thriving companies in the private sector attracted the brighter lads. The EGD had to face an extremely embarrassing situation when a service provider snapped bandwidth services due to non-payment of bills. And this time, the EGD officials were again napping by foreign IT professionals as well as candidate aspiring to work with the government by applying online.  Some of the whistle-blowers included candidates for February 5 advertisement for assistant director at IT&T Ministry who had failed to apply online owing to the prolonged outage of the web portal. Contrary to the instruction in the advertisement, the application form for Director IT position is not
available at the ministry’s website.

Naveed Ahmad Rana
Investigative Journalist/Academic Islamabad, PAKISTAN
Cell 00 92 321 52 111 17
00 92 333 52 111 17

Intelligence failure

The Supreme Court is actively pursuing the missing persons' cases to ensure they are tried only in civilian courts

  By Naveed Ahmad

http://jang.com.pk/thenews/sep2007-weekly/nos-02-09-2007/dia.htm#1

The intelligence agencies of the country are persistently on the receiving end, whether it is the reference against the chief justice or operation against Lal Masjid or the trauma faced by the missing persons' families.

Early last week, the Courtroom 1 of the Supreme Court witnessed unusual scenes when a civilian youth, Imran Munir, facing court martial for alleged espionage charges was given into civilian custody for at least a fortnight. Hafiz Abdul Basit, another person handed over to a Military Intelligence officer by the Federal Investigation Agency, was traced at the last minute of hearing after the chief justice ordered the arrest of the FIA director general until the citizen was traced. The government failed to prove charges against him, resulting in his release on SC orders.

Similarly a German national, Aleem Nasir, was picked up from the Allama Iqbal International Airport, Lahore in June with a substantive quantity of precious gemstones; he was also proven innocent and detained without lawful authority. Like Abdul Basit and Imran Munir, the country's secret services were reluctant to produce Aleem Nasir before the chief justice as well.

The hearing had been adjourned for a fortnight with clear instructions to Deputy Attorney General Ms Naheen for bringing in the detailed whereabouts of the missing persons. Thanks to the relentless courage of Mrs Amina Masood Janjua, the Supreme Court has included all cases of missing persons in the suo motu notice taken for her husband's disappearance in 2006. Her NGO, Defence of Human Rights (DHR), has listed over 285 missing persons while the HRCP is pursuing the cases of 155 missing Baloch and Sindhi nationalists. It goes without saying that the case got a fresh impetus during the judicial crisis and after the restoration of the Chief Justice on July 20.

Earlier in its annual report on human rights, the US State Department had acknowledged the disappearances: "There was an increase of politically motivated disappearances. Police and security forces held prisoners incommunicado and refused to provide information on their whereabouts, particularly in terrorism and national security cases." Amnesty, Asia Watch and Human Rights Watch have been far more critical of forced disappearances during the Musharraf regime.

Just as the Guantanamo Bay prison attracts condemnation and rejection from sane Americans, the cases of these missing persons are ugly scars on the face of military-led ruling coalition. The civil liberties have touched the lowest ebb since the America's 'War on Terror' proliferated across the planet.

The Chief justice, along with his fellow judges, is the last remaining hope for the dejected families of missing persons. Startling revelations about Masood Ahmad Janjua by various traced and freed persons in their affidavits suggest that there is much more to follow in the forthcoming proceedings. Imran Munir, a young man, has been produced from a Mangla detention centre to record a statement about Mrs Amina's husband who was reportedly living in the same prison. According to a letter and his diary pages, Imran Munir was asked to co--operate with the interrogators. According to DHR claims, he was also made to meet Masood Janjua who used to be in the same cell. Imran, who is suffering from cardiac problems and now hospitalised in PIMS on court orders, in his initial statement courageously, challenged the intelligence agencies' claims while describing gory details of physical and mental torture. The Supreme Court would record his detailed statement about his own condition, crime and about Masood Ahmad Janjua, for whom he is being produced as prime witness.

At the same time, advances are likely in the case of Faisal Faraz who went missing on the same date under similarly mysterious conditions when Janjua was allegedly picked up. The gruesome story of missing Atiq-ur-Rahman too is on the agenda for the next hearing. This decorated scientist of Pakistan Atomic Energy Commission (PAEC) went missing on the morning of June 23, on his wedding day. The devastated parents were harassed by police on pursuing the case and were eventually told that some agency has picked up their son. During the last hearing at the SC, a police record presented before the court suggested that an intelligence officer came to seek details about the scientist's family as well as details about his father-in-law who is lawyer in Karachi.

Simultaneously, the Supreme Court is also pursuing the missing persons from Sindh and Balochistan who had alleged links with the Balochistan Liberation Army (BLA) and other nationalist outfits. Many optimist human rights activists believe that the Supreme Court should soon look into the military operations being carried out in Balochistan and especially the one which resulted in the killing of Nawab Akbar Bugti.

The mere fact that the five-member bench, led by none other than Chief Justice Iftikhar Muhammad Chaudhry, sat at least for four hours beyond the court timing highlights the importance attached with the case. The chief justice has repeatedly made references to summoning the chiefs of intelligence agencies as well as the defence secretary if the progress in the case continues to remain far from his satisfaction.

navid.rana@gmail.com